9月非农即将公布，投行预测分歧加大，失业率或成为影响美联储政策和BTC走势的关键变量。

8月PCE低于预期，但消费依然强劲，美联储10月加息压力有所缓解，比特币BTC关注利率预期变化。

8月PCE即将公布，通胀与消费韧性让市场继续关注美联储后续利率路径，而这也将成为BTC等风险资产的重要变量

Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal but stated that discussions will continue this week. Nuclear issues, the Strait of Hormuz, and oil transportation have become key variables affecting market trends.

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The U.S. composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September, reaching the highest level since 2021, but strong demand and rising input costs have reignited concerns about inflation and interest rate hikes.

Both the United States and Iran have recently expressed a willingness to engage, creating a diplomatic window; however, there remains uncertainty regarding formal negotiations and a ceasefire.

Federal Reserve officials stated that inflation pressures have spread to the demand side, and the current interest rate of 3.75%-4.00% may still need to be further raised.

The BTC ETF is attracting new funds, but the ETH and XRP ETFs are experiencing outflows, indicating a clear differentiation in market capital.

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates again after more than three years, and Goldman Sachs further predicts another rate hike in October. The real variable facing BTC has shifted from "whether to raise rates" to "how much more will rates be raised."

Although the closing fell back to around 4.947%, the pattern of holding below 5% that had persisted for nearly three years since October 2023 has been broken for the first time.

This week's interest rate hike expectations have been basically priced in, and the market is truly focused on the FOMC voting types, dot plots, and the subsequent interest rate path. The key risk for BTC lies in whether liquidity expectations will tighten again.

The U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory bill is set for a crucial vote, but support for 60 votes remains uncertain. If the Senate is obstructed, the regulatory process may once again fall into a prolonged standoff.